Monday, May 14, 2007

"The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb


I'm currently reading a brilliant book that seems to be the logical application of Anti-Foundationalist theory to real life. Taleb seamlessly weaves a discussion of statistics, philosophy, and economics into a defiant statement of anti-truth. What I appreciate most is the pervasive empirical skepticism of narrative fallacy that somehow refrains from resorting to the type of scholarly language that so readily alienates all the Chris Rywalts in our midst. People who have a knee-jerk disgust to all thing "Post-Modern" (you know who you are) might find themselves thoroughly and unwittingly seduced into an anti-Platonic criticism without even realizing that they had wandered into the forest of Nominalism.

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Mr. Taleb is fascinated by the rare but pivotal events that characterize life in the power-law world. He calls them Black Swans, after the philosopher Karl Popper's observation that only a single black swan is required to falsify the theory that "all swans are white" even when there are thousands of white swans in evidence. Provocatively, Mr. Taleb defines Black Swans as events (such as the rise of the Internet or the fall of LTCM) that are not only rare and consequential but also predictable only in retrospect. We never see them coming, but we have no trouble concocting post hoc explanations for why they should have been obvious. Surely, Mr. Taleb taunts, we won't get fooled again. But of course we will.
Writing in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne, Mr. Taleb divides the world into those who "get it" and everyone else, a world partitioned into heroes (Popper, Hayek, Yogi Berra), those on notice (Harold Bloom, necktie wearers, personal-finance advisers) and entities that are dead to him (the bell curve, newspapers, the Nobel Prize in Economics).

A humanist at heart, Mr. Taleb ponders not only the effect of Black Swans but also the reason we have so much trouble acknowledging their existence. And this is where he hits his stride. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias (our tendency to reaffirm our beliefs rather than contradict them), narrative fallacy (our weakness for compelling stories), silent evidence (our failure to account for what we don't see), ludic fallacy (our willingness to oversimplify and take games or models too seriously), and epistemic arrogance (our habit of overestimating our knowledge and underestimating our ignorance).

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Chris Rywalt said...

Your style is cool, you are handsome.

No, wait, that was the robot.

Well, here's a real comment: I'm not a Platonist. And I don't think I'm alienated by scholarly language, I'm alienated by meaningless jargon.

The Black Swan sounds like a really interesting book. I'll add it to my list. First I have to finish the book on the Battle of Verdun I'm reading, then I want to get through Stephen King's second Dark Tower book (I'm re-reading it in preparation for catching up and finally finishing the whole series -- probably a bad idea). Then I might try something from Nick Tosches, on the recommendation of Tom Sutpen. Then I'll get right on it.

Jacques de Beaufort said...

..to some people the word "Platonist" is meaningless jargon.

Here's Black Swan in a nutshell in case you never get around to it:
No one knows anything and every meaning that we ascribe to events is ultimately manufactured and incomplete. The universe cannot be contained within a conceptual net. We can only look at incomplete and misleading maps.

Alas we are human..all to human. It is hard to see the world beyond a concept..to see it in it's "suchness".

We are programmed to make connections and create order. We are programmed to generalize. These operating systems work for a while and then will ultimately crash.

We are robots..handsome with cool style.

Slowly becoming obsolete.

And then one day the batteries run out.

Chris Rywalt said...

Jacques sez:
..to some people the word "Platonist" is meaningless jargon.

Ah, but there's a difference between "meaningless jargon" and "technical term outside of one's competence." The difference is, the latter can be looked up in a dictionary or other reference and understood, while the former never really means anything. I may not understand, for example, string theory; but I feel certain I could understand it, if I wanted to go through the many years it would take to learn the math. I've been partway down that path -- I was nearly a math minor in college -- and I know it's comprehensible, if complex and difficult.

Your summary of the book sounds good to me. I pretty much agree with it.

Steven LaRose said...

What does it mean when my meaningless jargon appears to be understood by someone else? Wait. Not truly meaningless, because I am trying to communicate something, not "Me mombo dogface in a banana patch" but "The difference between signifier and signified is no doubt the governing pattern within which Platonism institutes itself as philosophy. . ." or why does my dad see my paintings as meaningless jargon? Is it his fault or mine? Can't everything be researched and learned (learnt?). If you can't explain something to a ten year old, you probably don't understand it?

I thought when our batteries ran out, we plugged into some huge entity, power-ranger-style, we become One with the mama-bot. Away with the self and we become immortal.

Raise your hand if you have paint on your hand, right now.

Chris Rywalt said...

Steve sez:
Can't everything be researched and learned (learnt?).

Not things which don't really mean anything. Things which serve to hide meaning, or hide lack of meaning, can't be learned. Except, I guess, you can learn to recognize them.

Raise your hand if you have paint on your hand, right now.

You caught me at a clean moment. I just made dinner an hour or so ago. Although I think I have some leftover ink on the heel of my right hand -- I'm not sure what it is, actually.

Steven LaRose said...

I beg to differ Chris.

If it is true, what you say, that we can't learn things that "don't really mean anything", then everything is lost.

I suppose you're right about the notion that anything that is created to "hide" meaning or even the lack of meaning will, when done properly, never communicate either extreme and consequently, can't be learned.

But why would anyone want to do that?

Did you say that maybe we can learn to recognize obstacles to discovery?

Jacques de Beaufort said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jacques de Beaufort said...

I have to agree with Steve on this.
Chris your wholesale repudiation of Post-Modern theory seems a little overblown. I used to be skeptical as well that people like Deleuze, Derrida, etc. weren't just total frauds..mostly because we were force fed that stuff in ArtSchool and there's no way any of it can really be directly used to make art..but a closer reading over time revealed that while most of this theory is needlessly dense and jargon laden, there was actually a message..although it probably could've been said a whole lot simpler. Unfortunately scholars demand a level of erudition on recondite abstruseness that engenders this varity of obfuscatory verbiage. (see I just did it). It's the only way they can be taken seriously and society will value what the intellectual elite has to offer. It's annoying, sure, but I'm not ready to throw out any of these lines of thought. It's better to translate them into more readily salient examples, something that I've tried to do with my occasional essays. Specifically which writers, phraseologies, or neologisms are most irritating to you?

Steven LaRose said...

With this:

"It's the only way they can be taken seriously and society will value what the intellectual elite has to offer."

I beg to riffer (that just has the sound of a dance we should all do).

Society is desperately awaiting the arrival of not Batman, Bush, or Bart, but someone who understands the state of things and who has a sense of humor.

Steven LaRose said...

Wait.
Jacques?
Did you just say:
There is need for a Post-Modern Koan?
"generally containing aspects that are inaccessible to rational understanding, yet that may be accessible to intuition."

Chris Rywalt said...

Steve sez:
If it is true, what you say, that we can't learn things that "don't really mean anything", then everything is lost.

Well, first, always add "in my opinion" to anything I say or write. Because I don't really know anything.

Second, it's not that we can't learn anything that doesn't mean anything. That is, I'm specifically talking about language here. We can't learn to understand terms which don't really refer to anything, but are designed to obfuscate. So I'm speaking very specifically.

But why would anyone want to do that?

As Jacques sort of said, because their livelihood depends on it. Because if they wrote in plain, comprehensible terms, people would see that they're either stating the obvious or not saying anything at all.

Now, on to Jacques:
Specifically which writers, phraseologies, or neologisms are most irritating to you?

Hard to say. My mind is not the steel trap I would like it to be: I have a tendency to throw out the supporting evidence once I've come to a conclusion. Which means I have to go back and re-learn everything to re-argue it, if I have to. Right now the only terms that stick out clearly in my mind are the ones Pretty Lady posted about way back when -- historicity, reify, like that. If you'd caught me even six months ago I'd have been able to offer a much more cogent argument.

As it is, I just refer people back to Noam Chomsky's essay on postmodernism, which pretty much sums up my position.

Steven LaRose said...

"because their livelihood depends on it."

that scares me.

"Because if they wrote in plain, comprehensible terms, people would see that they're either stating the obvious or not saying anything at all."

Funny, coincidentally?, I just read from "Cosmic Trigger I" = all symbolism is essentially ambiguous and what I am having trouble with is how this ambiguity is threatening to some and fun to others.

The fact that we don't really know anything freaks people out I guess. It is the same sort of insecurity that makes bullies maybe.

Chris Rywalt said...

True: One of the biggest problems I have with postmodernism is it's almost entirely humorless.

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