"The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb

I'm currently reading a brilliant book that seems to be the logical application of Anti-Foundationalist theory to real life. Taleb seamlessly weaves a discussion of statistics, philosophy, and economics into a defiant statement of anti-truth. What I appreciate most is the pervasive empirical skepticism of narrative fallacy that somehow refrains from resorting to the type of scholarly language that so readily alienates all the Chris Rywalts in our midst. People who have a knee-jerk disgust to all thing "Post-Modern" (you know who you are) might find themselves thoroughly and unwittingly seduced into an anti-Platonic criticism without even realizing that they had wandered into the forest of Nominalism.

From the NY Times:

Mr. Taleb is fascinated by the rare but pivotal events that characterize life in the power-law world. He calls them Black Swans, after the philosopher Karl Popper's observation that only a single black swan is required to falsify the theory that "all swans are white" even when there are thousands of white swans in evidence. Provocatively, Mr. Taleb defines Black Swans as events (such as the rise of the Internet or the fall of LTCM) that are not only rare and consequential but also predictable only in retrospect. We never see them coming, but we have no trouble concocting post hoc explanations for why they should have been obvious. Surely, Mr. Taleb taunts, we won't get fooled again. But of course we will.
Writing in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne, Mr. Taleb divides the world into those who "get it" and everyone else, a world partitioned into heroes (Popper, Hayek, Yogi Berra), those on notice (Harold Bloom, necktie wearers, personal-finance advisers) and entities that are dead to him (the bell curve, newspapers, the Nobel Prize in Economics).

A humanist at heart, Mr. Taleb ponders not only the effect of Black Swans but also the reason we have so much trouble acknowledging their existence. And this is where he hits his stride. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias (our tendency to reaffirm our beliefs rather than contradict them), narrative fallacy (our weakness for compelling stories), silent evidence (our failure to account for what we don't see), ludic fallacy (our willingness to oversimplify and take games or models too seriously), and epistemic arrogance (our habit of overestimating our knowledge and underestimating our ignorance).